000 AXNT20 KNHC 050551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED 26.4N 90.5W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 178 NM S-SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 200 NM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MAITCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 83W-90W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N20W TO 7N19W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W- 16W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 11N49W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N56W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N58W TO 12N58W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 55W-63W. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W- 63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 9N22W TO 7N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N28W TO 6N46W TO 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-25W...AND FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM KAREN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE E GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF. A COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND OVER N TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W PRODUCING THE SHEAR OVER KAREN. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-90W. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER N COLOMBIA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING OVER HISPANIOLA BUT SHOWERS PERSIST. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N74W TO 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N34W TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 60W-65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA