000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N 90.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN... IS 0.49 IN MERIDA MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W... NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE...TO LOCALLY STRONG...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 18N52W 16N56W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N57W. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N49W 24N50W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N51W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT IS RELATED TO THE 18N52W 14N57W TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 5N35W AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W... FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK... KVBS...KDLP...AND AT KEIR. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...IN GALVESTON AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF MARY ESTHER...LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY FLORIDA...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AIRPORT AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM KAREN. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 23N68W...ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 16N TO 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS FEATURE IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W AT 04/0915 UTC HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 85W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EXCEPTION IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N67W TO 26N73W TO 23N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N49W AND 25N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 250 NM TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N24W TO 25N31W...TO 29N47W...TO 32N55W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N66W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT