000 AXNT20 KNHC 032346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED 23.8N 88.9 W AT 04/0000 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 315 NM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING N-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MAITCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-35N BETWEEN 87W-89W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 81W-90W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE N GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY AT 03/2100 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 31.8N 38.7W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 686 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 37W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 11N46W MOVING W AT NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 11N54W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N22W TO 8N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W 6N39W TO 8N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 21W-24W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N49W TO 19N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN THE S GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF CENTERED NEAR NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM KAREN ARE PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N- 30N BETWEEN 90W-92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS ALSO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE TO INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE FRI NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST SAT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SAT NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF KAREN REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ARE INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY TONIGHT. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL DIP S ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND COUPLE WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE DAILY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 25N67W COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 63W-72W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N- 28N BETWEEN 61W-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W-60W AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 25N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N34W AND 33N32W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN RETREAT EASTWARD AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES OVER SE CONUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW