000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 03/1800 UTC IS NEAR 22.9N 88.2W...ABOUT 375 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 23N BETWEEN 84W IN CUBA AND 87W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE...TO ISOLATED STRONG...COVER PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO 29N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 82W AND 92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY AT 03/1500 UTC IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31.0N 40.2W. JERRY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS T.D. JERRY...FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS DISAPPEARING MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE DISAPPEARING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N47W 21N48W 18N48W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT IS RELATED PART OF THE 52W/53W TROPICAL WAVE BEING STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 6N30W AND 8N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 6N15W 6N20W 5N30W 6N34W 8N38W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W... AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF T.S. KAREN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31N81W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FIFTY PERCENT OF THE STATIONS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TOWARD THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA OF TEXAS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PANAMA CITY. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES...AND THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... AND AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM KAREN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N68W 147N70W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.17 IN TRINIDAD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N73W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. HISPANIOLA... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 26N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN A COL FOR MOST OF THE TIME. A TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 30N65W TO A 26N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 26N67W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 20N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N52W AND 26N56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE 26N67W CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG 29N73W 26N72W 24N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N64W 23N66W 22N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N52W 30N57W 28N64W 26N69W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.08 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 26N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 26N24W TO 19N27W AND 13N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N33W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 37W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT