000 AXNT20 KNHC 020550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 43.7W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1120 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1025 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 40W- 45W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N84W TO 22N83W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19N81W PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 76W-86W. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N32W TO 15N31W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 28W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 20N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH NORTHWARD INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JERRY FROM A MAXIMUM NEAR 11N38W TO 22N42W. WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT NOTED 14N...CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 11N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 09N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 14W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 24W-27W...AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 32N93W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF TO 25N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THIS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...HOWEVER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO 23N95W. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE...MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF WATERS...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY SE OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 22N87W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W AND IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE W OF 74W. AT THE SURFACE BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 84W WITH A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N- 23N BETWEEN 77W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN E-SE TRADES E OF 70W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST CONCENTRATED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 66W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY NORTHERLY DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING FOR A PASSING SHOWER. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N60W SW TO 32N69W TO A BASE NEAR 28N76W. WHILE PRIMARILY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N64W DOMINATES SURFACE CONDITIONS...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 24N-33N BETWEEN 59W-74W. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 75W- 84W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL STORM JERRY CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF 28N44W REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC N OF 27N E OF 45W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER S OF 27N...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N30W IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN