000 AXNT20 KNHC 011810 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2013 CORRECTION FOR THE FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY AT 01/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.1N 43.5W...NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE OF BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. JERRY IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 82W FROM CUBA SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W...INCLUDING ACROSS JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.05 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N40W 14N39W 10N38W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N41W 17N40W 14N39W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 13N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N19W TO 10N26W 8N29W 11N31W 10N38W 9N44W 8N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...BEYOND 25N100W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N89W 27N87W 24N97W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 42- HOUR FORECAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE ALONG 86W TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N82W...ALONG THE 82W SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N/25N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 66W. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS RESIDUAL FLOW FROM A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING 21N64W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN COASTAL SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.95 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N FROM 83W BEYOND 86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N/25N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N62W TO 21N64W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W 30N78W 27N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N62W 30N61W 28N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.08 IN BERMUDA AND 0.15 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 71W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 30N23W 29N30W AND 29N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 39W. A THIRD AREA CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT