000 AXNT20 KNHC 010601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 43.8W AT 01/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1130 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1060 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING E AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 41W- 45W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/0222 UTC INDICATED THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N82W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE PASS NE OF THIS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 79W-81W...LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N25W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF 09N24W. THIS ALONG WITH AN INTERESTING BROAD CYCLONIC CLOUD PRESENTATION S OF 13N IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 23W- 33W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 21N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM 08N-21N BETWEEN 31W-40W AND CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING AND A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-22N BETWEEN 35W-42W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 16N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N42W TO 06N54W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N92W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 32N93W AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N101W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-94W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 23N-27N AND INLAND AREAS OF NE MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-SE WINDS DUE TO WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SE CONUS TO THE SW GULF WATERS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N86W TO 25N86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 27N BETWEEN 80W-88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 15N W OF 84W THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N77W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 78W-82W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 70W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DRY AND STABLE FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE ISLAND AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N77W. MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME IS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER CUBA...JAMAICA... AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 39N67W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG 63W TO 24N. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W TO 26N67W. WITH LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONGOING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N57W TO 21N66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N77W SW TO 32N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE AREA W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM JERRY...THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N57W AND ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N30W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF 27N ANALYZED FROM 32N21W TO 28N31W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 27N- 32N BETWEEN 31W-41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN