000 AXNT20 KNHC 292341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N 47.6W AT 29/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1012 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 947 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N29W TO 7N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 25W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N65W TO 10N69W MOVING W-NW AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING AROUND THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA- BISSAU AT 12N15W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N34W AND CONTINUES TO 7N45W TO 8N54W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 34W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM HOUSTON TO BROWNSVILLE DRIFTING E. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS WITH NO PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALL ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA S OF JAMAICA FROM 18N78W TO 10N79W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N- 18N BETWEEN 71W-78W. ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA ...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 75W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. HISPANIOLA... BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING FROM S TO N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N71W. A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 64W-71W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N41W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SE OF THE CENTER CONTRIBUTING TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH... AND FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TO MOVE SLOWLY NE WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA