000 AXNT20 KNHC 290015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE CENTER IS NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 24N51W. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N24W TO 7N25W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A DISTINCT MOIST AREA IS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 21W-28W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL EXTENDS FROM 18N57W TO 8N58W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N65W TO 8N66W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AT 14N16W TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N30W TO 6N35W TO 7N45W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 32W-36W...AND FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 22N85W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. FURTHER N... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA GULF COAST S OF TAMPA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N77W TO W CUBA AT 22N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NMOF THE FRONT. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N78W TO 9N79W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N- 18N BETWEEN 71W-80W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER HISPANIOLA ...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 75W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N61W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE TO A TRIPLE POINT AT 30N67W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 25N70W 22N74W 21N77W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE TRIPLE POINT TO 31N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTS. A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N40W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO LOW TO MOVE N WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA