000 AXNT20 KNHC 271805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N17W 14N18W 12N21W 12N22W 11N23W. SCATTERED STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N49W 14N48W 10N47W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N59W 10N58W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 4N TO 10N. THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP IN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 64W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN BETWEEN THE 18N61W 10N58W TROPICAL WAVE AND 19N49W 10N47W TROPICAL WAVE...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE 50W/51W SURFACE TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 8N28W 6N34W AND 5N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA-TO GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W...TO 28N66W AND 28N71W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N75W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N85W TO 24N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF 28N59W 27N62W 27N64W 27N67W 26N68W 27N70W 26N72W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM TO THE NORTH OF 25N74W 24N77W 23N80W 24N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 90W. FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED AT BERMUDA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 27/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE MIATPTPAN BULLETIN. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KVAF...KEMK...AND KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALSO ARE OBSERVED IN SARASOTA AND IN FORT MYERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IS AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO HISPANIOLA... A COMPARATIVELY WEAK AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PARTS OF EASTERN HAITI. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 76W FROM 10N TO 19N. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 66W/67W...AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 17N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W 11N78W...TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND THE NICARAGUA COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N67W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO... TO 16N65W AND 14N64W. A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N21W AND 23N23W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 30N21W AND 28N26W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 29N20W...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N27W AND 28N30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N26W TO 29N37W 28N44W AND 26N48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 15W AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N8W INLAND...TO 25N21W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N39W...TO 21N59W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 28N70W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N75W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 26N63W 31N46W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W FROM 10N TO 20N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT