000 AXNT20 KNHC 251151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N47W TO 9N41W MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N37W TO 16N48W. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 15N57W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 16N-19N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N25W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 6N36W TO 7N45W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N33W TO 16N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19N-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N91W THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE ACROSS APALACHEE BAY THROUGH PORT SAINT JOE FLORIDA TO A 1007 MB LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN 30/45 NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF THE LOW. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 17N93W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-93W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BOTH SURFACE LOWS WILL DRIFT E- NE THROUGH FRI WHEN W GULF LOW MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS SE CONUS INTO N GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF LINE FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W COVERING THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N78W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE E FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN RETREAT E AS AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE S CHANGES THE UPPER FLOW TO WESTERLY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND FRI BEFORE DISSIPATE SAT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE OR INTENSIFY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 32N72W COVERING THE FAR W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W ALONG 27N67W TO 27N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N72W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 46W-55W AND FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N61W TO 24N69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N37W AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER E ALONG FRONT THROUGH SAT WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW