000 AXNT20 KNHC 250602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 25/0000 UTC ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 9N39W MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM BOTH SIDES THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO 13N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 18N- 20N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N29W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 7N36W TO 8N40W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N45W TO 9N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA...FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 19N-23W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-39W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 36W- 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE W GULF N OF 25N W OF 87W. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING AT 25/0300 UTC FROM 29N92W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W TO 25N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH TO CEDAR KEY ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG 29N84W TO A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA...WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N90W TO 27N87W... AND IN THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO OVER THE SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW IN THE W GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE REACHING NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA BY THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN BUILD NW TO THE TEXAS COAST ON FRI WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF LINE FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W COVERING THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY W FLOW ALOFT S OF 15N AND E FLOW ALOFT N OF 15N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO FRESH TRADES THU AND FRI. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE E FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN RETREAT E AS AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE S CHANGES THE UPPER FLOW TO WESTERLY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND FRI BEFORE DISSIPATE SAT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE OR INTENSIFY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 31N73W COVERS THE FAR W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS BERMUDA TO 27N66W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 25/0300 UTC NEAR 32N62W ALONG 27N67W TO 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N77W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 30N80W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N61W TO 23N71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N40W AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE MAINLY E THROUGH WED NIGHT AND PASS S OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI NIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW ATLC BY THU AND WILL DRIFT MAINLY E THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW