000 AXNT20 KNHC 241121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N40W 15N39W 10N37W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N46W 15N45W 11N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N51W 16N50W 10N48W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 28N30W 26N37W...AND TO A 23N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N46W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 39W AND 56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 13N20W 10N25W AND 7N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N32W TO 5N38W AND 4N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO AREAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N68W AND 26N68W. A GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 22N90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE SPANS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-TO- 22N90W TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N69W AND 30N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N72W... ALONG 30N THROUGH FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W IN FLORIDA AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 25N64W... BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W TO THE EAST OF THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 85W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI... KEHC...KEIR...KSPR...KMYT...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS AT PALACIOS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE MIXED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS FROM BROOKSVILLE TO FORT MYERS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. THE SKY IS CLEARING IN NAPLES FLORIDA. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N62W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 14N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN EAST-TO- WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 30N55W-TO-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 64W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 15N56W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N67W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO... TO 16N65W AND 14N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER THAT IS NEAR 9N73W TO 7N77W IN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...THROUGH THE REST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N. A FEW CELLS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDES OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N67W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO... TO 16N65W AND 14N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 28N30W 26N37W...AND TO A 23N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 30N21W AND 28N26W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N26W TO 29N37W 28N44W AND 26N48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 15W AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N20W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N33W... TO 23N47W 24N60W 22N68W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST FOR A COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 26N67W...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N67W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N76W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT