000 AXNT20 KNHC 221727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N26W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MOIST SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N42W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO A RELATIVELY DRY AREA HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 12N24W TO 8N27W TO 8N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N32W TO 10N41W TO 8N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 11W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 32N85W TO 29N91W TO A 1002 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR 26N94W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 20N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W... AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 90W- 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 94W- 97W. 20-25 WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW...AND N OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TRADEWINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA IS VOID OF CONVECTION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EVENING AIRMASS HEATING TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA N OF 29N W OF 77W DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W MOVING N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 54W-59W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 28N40W TO 29N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N59W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 60W-72W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGHIS CENTERED NEAR 27N54W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 18N52W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA