000 AXNT20 KNHC 170015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID AT 16/2100 UTC IS INLAND NEAR 23.7N 99.0W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE WEST OF LA PESCA IN MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 97W- 101W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO AT 16/2100 UTC IS NEAR 27.3N 43.5W OR ABOUT 1086 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. HUMBERTO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT HUMBERTO THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4... AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N21W TO 15N23W TO 10N24W...MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THIS WAVE HAS A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 40W LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 16N21W TO 11N27W TO 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W TO 11N40W TO 11N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 43W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W. ELSEWHERE ...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 15-20 KT E SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 24N86W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N. ALSO EXPECT INGRID TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 83W-90W TO INCLUDE BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA ...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM E PANAMA TO GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCUNG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THERE. EXPECT...A BROAD DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO N OF THE ISLAND NEAR 22N69W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N66W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. T.S. HUMBERTO IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N45W NORTH OF HUMBERTO INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF THE STORM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA