000 AXNT20 KNHC 160602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N 96.5W OR 95 NM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 5 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 92W-97W. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. AS OF 16/0300 UTC THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO ARE BEING ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N41W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT AND IS GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING AND DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 38W-42W...COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W FROM 19N-10N...MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-15N AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-18N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 16N16W TO 14N23W TO 10N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N32W TO 08N43W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N E OF 18W...FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 19W-28W AS WELL AS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 46W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE INGRID. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER ONE SW OF GUATEMALA ALSO SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF JUST E OF THE UPPER-RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF W OF 88W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 86W AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FROM 25N-29N E OF 88W. HURRICANE INGRID IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TRAILING CONVECTION FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LINGER OVER THE W-SW GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COINCIDES WITH THIS REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W...INCLUDING CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-83W. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA OF THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY OVER THIS REGION. A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ANOTHER ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE THIS MORNING IS IN THE SE BASIN COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 13N E OF 64W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HISPANIOLA... TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WITH MOISTER AIR SURROUNDING THE COASTLINES. A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY NEAR THE COASTLINE AND ADJACENT WATERS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BESIDES THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE RESPECTIVE SECTIONS ABOVE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 28N-30N W OF 72W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS TROUGH AND A WEAK RIDGE FORMING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FORMER LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 25N64W TO 23N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS