000 AXNT20 KNHC 152357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 16/0000 UTC IS NEAR 22.9N 96.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 109 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 109 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO MONDAY MORNING. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-97W. THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HUMBERTO AT 15/2100 UTC IS NEAR 27N40W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 19N-10N...MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 14N26W TO 11N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N31W TO 8N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE INGRID IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE HURRICANE. EXPECT INGRID TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND N OF 15N. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO E OF 70W. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 27N40W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. EXPECT THE LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE NW AND WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA