000 AXNT20 KNHC 150011 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID AT 15/0000 UTC IS NEAR 21.6N 94.7W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 156 NM ENE OF TUXPAN IN MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 93W- 99W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 16W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 13W-18W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 16N20W TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N25W TO 7N30W TO 7N40W TO 9N50W TO 12N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE INGRID IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO HOUSTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE S GULF SUPPORTING THE HURRICANE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 25N. EXPECT INGRID TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF UNTIL MONDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND N OF 15N. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N E OF 62W. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA N OF THE EQUATOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N72W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA...MOSTLY OVER HAITI...AND MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE N TO HISPANIOLA WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 70W. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 53W-60W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25N36W 1005 MB MOVING NW AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 33W-38W. EXPECT THE LOW NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE NW AND WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA