000 AXNT20 KNHC 141154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 94.5W AT 14/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 110 NM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 NM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 91W-97W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 83W- 98W. WHILE INGRID IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE SW GULF WATERS AND COASTAL MEXICO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 34.0W AT 14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 780 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 26W-38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N15W TO 19N14W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 14W-21W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N27W TO 05N32W TO 09N48W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 21W- 32W...AND FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N102W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT W OF A LINE FROM COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 28N97W TO OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS DIRECTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST S OF 27N W OF 96W...WHICH LEADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID CENTERED IN THE WESTERN SW GULF WATERS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE N OF 25N DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE CONUS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD TO EASTERN TEXAS THAT IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF INGRID'S INFLUENCE...GENERALLY E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W...AND 15-25 KT W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N73W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEST OF A LINE FROM 22N81W TO 15N84W...THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. FARTHER SOUTH... ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA THROUGH COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 68W- 76W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND IS ADVECTING SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY POSSIBLE PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS. HISPANIOLA... MOST EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DUE TO LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 14N73W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THIS TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IS ANALYZED WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER REMAIN N OF 32N. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-80W AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 27N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THIS IS KEEPING SKIES AND CONDITIONS FAIR AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HOWEVER THAT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 70W-77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-36N BETWEEN 48W- 61W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N58W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 52W-61W. FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE AREA IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN