000 AXNT20 KNHC 140549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 95.2W AT 14/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 NM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-96W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 84W- 98W. WHILE INGRID IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE SW GULF WATERS AND COASTAL MEXICO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 33.0W AT 14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 730 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 27W-37W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N14W TO 18N13W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 10N19W TO 06N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N25W TO 08N38W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N19W TO 07N25W TO 07N31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N101W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT W OF A LINE FROM COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 29N96W TO OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS DIRECTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST S OF 27N W OF 96W...WHICH LEAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID CENTERED IN THE WESTERN SW GULF WATERS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 15N W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE N OF 25N DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE CONUS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD TO NORTH TEXAS THAT IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF INGRID'S INFLUENCE... GENERALLY E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W...AND 15-25 KT W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N73W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEST OF A LINE FROM 22N82W TO 15N87W...THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. FARTHER SOUTH... ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA THROUGH COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 67W- 75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND IS ADVECTING SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY POSSIBLE PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE DUE TO LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 14N73W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THIS TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND IS ANALYZED WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER REMAIN N OF 32N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 66W AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THIS IS KEEPING SKIES AND CONDITIONS FAIR AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE HOWEVER THAT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 70W-77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N58W THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N- 35N BETWEEN 50W-61W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N57W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 52W-58W. FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE AREA IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN