000 AXNT20 KNHC 101150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF GABRIELLE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AT 10/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.9N 64.9W AT 10/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 143 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 10/0600 UTC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF BERMUDA NEAR 24N65W THROUGH THE LOW TO 23N70W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DROPPED AT 10/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N63W TO 25N68W. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 26.6W AT 10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS /SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 14N26.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 25W-32W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 23N46W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N45W TO 17N44W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE/LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 18N48W TO 20N51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W ACROSS S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. THE ITCZ BEGINS SW OF HUMBERTO NEAR 9N38W ALONG 8N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W- 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE GULF BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND GALVESTON TO 24N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA ACROSS WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES INTO THE GULF TO 23N86W. THIS IS INDUCING UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER S/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS ALONG 26N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N E OF 90W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH SAT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF BY WED AND LINGER THROUGH SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A MORE IDENTIFIABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 18N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 19N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N W OF 78W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 16N77W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 9N81W TO OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N62W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... CLOUD COVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING ARE TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N77W AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W ATLC WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 32N73W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N43W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 40W-45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/NR