000 AXNT20 KNHC 091151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1122 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO AT 09/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 23.3W AT 09/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 92 NM S OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 23W- 27W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N- 17N BETWEEN 22W-32W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 23N40W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 18N38W TO 16N37W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS BEEN MOVING NW 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE N OF THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN NW AWAY FROM THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N41W TO 22N45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 15N89W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO OVER MAURITANIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DISRUPTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W GULF BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE TO 23N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS TO OVER NE MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 27N87W. THIS IS INDUCING UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF FROM 20N- 28N W OF 90W TO THE COAST OF W MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM 24N FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 80W TO 90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA IS BEGINNING TO PULL NE AWAY FROM THE HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA S OF 12N. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-79W. TRADE WINDS ARE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH INTO FRI. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING FROM S TO N. THE NATIONAL OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE WEATHER ALERTS. LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. TUE THROUGH FRI EXPECT THE DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH THEN INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N75W TO 32N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N65W TO A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...NEAR 25N68W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N53W WHICH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/NR