000 AXNT20 KNHC 090547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 22.3W AT 09/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 120 NM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N22W TO 12N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N38W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N38W TO 13N38W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS MOVED NW 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE N OF THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN NW AWAY FROM THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 17N39W TO 20N42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 14N88W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 11N24W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N31W TO 16N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N42W AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 28W-36W AND FROM 16N- 19N BETWEEN 18W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W GULF NEAR BROWNSVILLE TO 23N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TAMPA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-96W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-73W INCLUDING THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-76W. TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH INTO FRI. HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND REMAINS UNDER CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATIONAL OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINTAINS A WEATHER ALERT AGAINST OVERFLOWING RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...AND LANDSLIDES TO RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS TO THE PROVINCES OF HATO MAYOR AND MONTE PLATA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N75W ALONG 28N78W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER S FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 27N76W TO 31N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ALONG 30N66W TO A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...NEAR 26N68W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 25N62W TO BEYOND 32N53W WHICH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W ALONG 25N64W TO 32N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW