000 AXNT20 KNHC 080533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N17W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 1418W TO 10N17W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 25W AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS OBSERVED IN THE STATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N35W. THIS WAVE/LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW/WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO 18N36W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO 10N82W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N78W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS AT 08/0000 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AT THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N22W 15N31W THROUGH THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N35W TO 7N48W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 27W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE S GULF ALONG 19N BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N96W TO 20N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 89W- 95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING JUST N OF THE AREA MON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED S OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND E ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE S TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W- 72W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA TO OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA NEAR 10N84W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND SUN REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING. HISPANIOLA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT DUE IN PART TO THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF HAITI AND THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 67W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 30N67W TO A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...NEAR 25N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE NEAR 20N63W TO BEYOND 32N56W WHICH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 20N65W TO BEYOND 32N56W. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N44W...26N42W...AND 21N51W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 25N45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N50W AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW DISSIPATES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN CONTINUE NE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MON THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW