000 AXNT20 KNHC 061157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N32W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N33W TO 9N33W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N59W TO 10N55W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CUT-OFF AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 56W-60W...FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 53W-55W...AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 58-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO 10N83W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N75W TO 16N83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W 14N26W THROUGH THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N33W TO 10N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N51W TO 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 35W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN GUINEA AND SENEGAL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N97W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N97W...TO 20N96W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS OF WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM 26N95W TO 19N91W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 22N BETWEEN MEXICO AND CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 89W-95W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 22N- 28N E OF 89W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W ANCHORED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-78W AND S OF 10N W OF 78W. A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 62W-69W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 70W TODAY THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN SOME MON. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON TODAY. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER SW HAITI. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS JUST OFFSHORE NEAR 19.5N69W GENERATING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 65W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W- 80W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W- 63W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 30N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH 21N56W TO BEYOND 32N49W. A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GABRIELLE...IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19.5N69W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE ALONG 24N66W TO 29N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W- 65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT THEN NE INTO MON WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AND SHIFTS E SAT AND SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW