000 AXNT20 KNHC 042359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 66.2W AT 04/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ... OR ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIA TCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT ...AND REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-68W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N27W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT 13N28W TO 8N28W MOVING W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 26W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO 16N48W TO 10N46W MOVING W AT 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO 10N60W MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 57W- 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-61W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 10N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 72W-74W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W TO 13N28W TO 9N39W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N39W TO 10N48W TO 13N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 10W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 22N93W 26N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE W GULF FROM 16N-28N BETWEEN 90W-99W. FURTHER N...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES E OF E TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 81W-97W. THE E GULF HAS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 25N. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE SE GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE FROM S MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 22N95W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BASICALLY W OF 83W...OVER CUBA...OVER JAMAICA...AND OVER HISPANIOLA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-70W. MOREOVER ...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. EXPECT T.D. SEVEN TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER HAITI MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO HAVE UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HAITI IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAIN ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 77W. 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N29W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 28N61W...AND 25N45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR T.D. SEVEN AND THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE SOURCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA