000 AXNT20 KNHC 031952 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013 RETRANSMITTED TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 11N TO 19N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N62W...ABOUT 30 NM TO THE WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DOMINICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.76 IN BARBADOS... 0.81 IN CURACAO...0.61 IN GUADELOUPE...0.25 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.13 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.08 IN TRINIDAD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N40W 16N39W 10N37W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N40W 20N41W 11N39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N56W 15N55W 10N54W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N16W... TO 9N29W AND 7N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N37W TO 9N46W AND 9N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N17W 13N20W 11N23W 8N24W 5N25W 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA SLOWLY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE STREAMS FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 25N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N103W IN MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N82W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO 29N86W...CURVING TO THE 25N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION OF A COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INTENSITY IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BEYOND GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 2.26 IN MERIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KMDJ. VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS AND HAZE ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEMK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED AT BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND BAY CITY IN TEXAS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING ARE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT MOBILE ALABAMA...AND IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MARY ESTHER TO PANAMA CITY AND MARIANNA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA...AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N23W 30N37W...TO A 25N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N60W...TO 23N67W...CURVING TO 22N73W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 23N40W 16N39W 10N37W TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 22N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 13N77W 12N75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.23 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH... AND THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 81W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-TO- SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 13N77W 12N75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST- TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO AREA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CURRENT TROUGH THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N TO 18N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N49W TO 28N61W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND WESTERN CUBA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 56W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 17.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST INDICATES WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 17N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT