000 AXNT20 KNHC 031106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 23N38W TO 09N34W AND IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A MOISTURE REDUCTION WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SAHARAN AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENGULFING IT. THEREFORE...NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 20N53W TO 08N52W AND IS MOVING WEST NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDE WITH THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W AND IS MOVING NEAR 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W. THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16N102W. REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N23W TO 07N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 10N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 17W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-40W AS WELL AS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... IN THE UPPER-LEVEL...AN ELONGATED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W N OF 21N WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS GENERATING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH EXTEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-88W. THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16N102W. REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W TO 14N93W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BASIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE UPPER-LEVEL...AN ELONGATED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W N OF 21N WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS GENERATING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 82W AS WELL AS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 11N ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH MOVES ACROSS PANAMA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N53W. THIS IS GENERATING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WILL START MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N53W. THIS IS GENERATING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEGENERATE WED MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO PUSHING FORWARD AN ENVELOPE OF HIGH MOISTURE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 20N WHICH ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST LATE TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR