000 AXNT20 KNHC 021804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N34W 16N33W 10N33W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 14N51W 10N50W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N59W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PART OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N98W IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N88W...TO THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 25N96W 20N92W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 13N24W 10N35W 9N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17W... AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N98W IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N88W...TO THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 25N96W 20N92W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N84W... BEYOND THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS AND HAZE ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEMK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND BAY CITY... AND IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LAKE CHARLES AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN COASTAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY PRECIPITATION COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS IN PUNTA GORDA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN NAPLES AND MARATHON KEY. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N63W 23N68W...CURVING TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...TO 14N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N60W 28N62W 27N64W 24N67W...FROM PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING...IN AN AREA OF EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING FROM LAND TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO 12N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO 16N82W OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ISLAND WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE...GIVING WAY TO AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 30N36W TO 28N40W...TO A 24N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 29N68W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 55W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N31W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT