000 AXNT20 KNHC 010549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N19W TO THE LOW NEAR 16N19W TO 10N19N AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 16N WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N- 17N BETWEEN 21W-24W. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 19N56W TO THE LOW NEAR 15N56W TO 12N57W AND MOVES W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THE WAVE IS WITHIN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH A MAXIMUM LOCATED E OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS COINCIDE WITH THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE AND IS LOCATED FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21N84W TO 11N83W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N16W TO 11N30W 10N40W 13N49W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N E OF 35W AS WELL AS FROM 04N- 11N BETWEEN 42W-48W AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WHILE E-SE WIND IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W TO 16N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE W 95W AND THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THE N EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SUN PASSING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH WED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE AND THROUGH THE NE WATERS ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21N84W TO 11N83W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 76W-83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS OCCURRING IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W COINCIDING WITH THE CENTER LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. PART OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO BUT WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE/LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS OCCURRING IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W COINCIDING WITH THE CENTER LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND PASS OVER THE ISLAND TUE AND WED. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 75W-80W COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE LOW CENTERED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A RIDGE TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N53W CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 59W-64W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N W OF 40W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N61W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N63W TO 29N66W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR