000 AXNT20 KNHC 010002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N18W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N18W TO 10N18W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ENCOMPASSING THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 20W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N54W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N56W TO 12N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 40W-60W ENCOMPASSING THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ENCOMPASSING THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-85W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 78W83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 16N18W ALONG 9N28W 9N42W TO 11N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-22W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 42W-49W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SW MEXICO COVERS MOST OF THE W GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S GEORGIA COVERS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS COVERING THE THE SE GULF AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 83W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 92W. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM A RECENT DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 21N93W TO TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 17N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-95W. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE N EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SUN PASSING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH WED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE AND THROUGH THE NE WATERS ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE OF THE ABOVE UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 80W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO THE ABC ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER HAITI. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ACROSS PANAMA TO OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 77W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PASSAGE ON SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE/LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND PASS OVER THE ISLAND TUE AND WED. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-77W ANCHORED NEAR 27N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 60W-78W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 33N61W ALONG 30N64W TO 29N67W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 32N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N46W. THE N EXTENSION OF THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS S OF 22N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO ON SUN AND MON AND FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH HISPANIOLA TUE AND WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW