000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N42W 15N42W 10N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 13 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. A BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-TO JAMAICA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N76W... 21N77W 18N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN INLAND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W 10N25W 10N36W 9N39W 6N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N82W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. A SURFACE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 25N96W 22N95W 19N92W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREAS THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM 23N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX AND KHQI. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS KCRH. ICAO STATION KEMK IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA...ACROSS THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...TO HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N40W 20N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35N35W 32N37W 29N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N46W...THROUGH 31N50W 28N63W TOWARD PUERTO RICO. H 32N44W TO 29N58W AND 28N74W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR THE 35N35W 29N38W SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 30 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT