000 AXNT20 KNHC 280604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 41W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 9 TO 13 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N54W DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT 27/2045 UTC HAS DISSIPATED SINCE THEN. REMNANT SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO COVERS SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 11N26W 11N36W 13N48W 10N57W 9N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND IN SENEGAL TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...COVERING PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND AFFECTING SOME OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 26N79W 23N81W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N83W 25N82W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W...WITH NO APPARENT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CONNECTED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 18N48W 15N58W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W ALONG 11N/12N...ALONG 11N/12N BEYOND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA STILL FINDS ITSEL TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT 27/2045 UTC HAS DISSIPATED SINCE THEN. REMNANT SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N64W AND 28N71W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W 29N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N38W AND 25N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N48W 15N58W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N59W AND 27N69W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT