000 AXNT20 KNHC 271150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE POSITION WAS HELD NEAR THE POSITION AT 27/0000 UTC IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10.5N52W DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 27/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W...COVERING NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATEED MODERATE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN JAMAICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N23W 13N36W 11N47W 10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N72W TO 28N79W...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE 25N80W CENTER COVERS THE BAHAMAS/ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N65W TO 30N72W...CURVING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 25N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMNANT OF FERNAND HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N95W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N98W ALSO ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMDJ AND KGVX. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN MCALLEN TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH FOG AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...COVERING BARBADOS AND APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N83W IN COSTA RICA... BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED WITH TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 27/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA TODAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SURROUNDS PUERTO RICO...IS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO IT IS REACHING EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 26N43W 223N39W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N53W 27N70W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS... INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT