000 AXNT20 KNHC 251757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W MOVING W 5- 10 KT. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-97W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N33W TO 11N33W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE N AND S PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE WHILE DRIER AIR IS BEING INTRODUCED TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE WAVE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 31W-35W. OTHERWISE NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N67W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 66W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N25W 12N34W TO 10N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N47W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 47W- 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 15W-25W...FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 31W- 46W...AND S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 58W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC NARROWS AS IT EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 25/1500 UTC NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N86W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-95W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 24N E OF 94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING AT 25/1500 UTC FROM 29N94W ALONG 27N96W TO 24N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E PANAMA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N79W TO ACROSS W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON THEN WILL DIMINISH TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY MON AND MOVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA MON REDUCING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE. AFTERNOON HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC THEN NARROWS AS IT CROSSES NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/1500 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N65W ALONG 30N73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 63W-74W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 73W...AND FROM 24N-TO THE FRONT W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC S OF 30N TO 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SE TODAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS S INTO THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ALONG 29N/30N TUE THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW