000 AXNT20 KNHC 241743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N24W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES AREA ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N59W TO 8N63W MOVING W 15 KT. 12 UTC RAOB FROM BARBADOS SUGGESTED WAVE AXIS HAD PASSED TO THEIR WEST BEFORE 12 UTC. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 58W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS OF 15 UTC...EXTENDING FROM 24N90W TO 12N91W. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED ON THE WAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W. THIS WAVE AND LOW MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SPECIAL FEATURE ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES OF THE TWD...PENDING INCREASES IN THE GENESIS PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE ON SSMI IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW PRES AREA OVER BELIZE...YUCATAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 16N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NOTED ABOVE...TO 12N33W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 7N50W TO 10N60W. THE SMALL LOW CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. ASIDE FORM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIONW AS NOTED FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 45W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 15 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND NOW EXTENDS FROM FROM 24N90W TO 12N91W. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED ON THE WAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES. SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE AT 10-15 KT OVER THE GULF NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 29N90W TO 27N95W TO 23N97W. ADDITIONAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WERE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 87W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WAS FANNING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE LOW POSSIBLY EMERGING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS LOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE AND ALSO FOCUSED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF A MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SWEEPING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITHIN IN AREA OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. PRESENTLY TRADE WIND CUMULUS DOT THE ISLAND WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES NEAR 44N27W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 15N- 30N E OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGHOUT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OVER THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 35W. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB