000 AXNT20 KNHC 200004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N25W TO 16N28W TO 08N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N29W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N67W TO 10N66W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N85W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE SE GULF...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 10N23W TO 07N30W TO 07N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO 11N50W TO 15N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 35W. FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 13N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N96W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE GULF STATES FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER A PORTION OF THE SE GULF N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. FURTHER S...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA FROM 07N77W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W- 85W TO INCLUDE N COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N63W TO 11N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS TROUGH. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE ...AND FOR THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY EVENING CONVECTION IS MAINLY OVER HAITI AND W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOGETHER WITH MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THW W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N68W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N32W. THE REMNANTS OF ERIN IS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND N OF PUERTO RICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA