000 AXNT20 KNHC 181141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W AT 18/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 870 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ERIN IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE S PENINSULA OF SENEGAL NEAR 12.5N16W ALONG 9N17W TO 4N18W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N60W TO 9N60W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 91N-13N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N76W TO 11N77W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LOW GENERATING THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OVER THE 1007 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12.5N16W CONTINUING ALONG 6N25W TO 8N35W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 10N46W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 43W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AND SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE N GULF COAST INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO A DEEPENING 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N91W ALONG 26N95W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO OVER LAGUNA MADRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 87W-91W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N93W ALONG 21N94W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N93W 26N90W TO 29N89W AND S OF 22N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS AND AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. THE LOW WILL INLAND OVER THE N GULF TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W TO INLAND NE MEXICO AND FAR S TEXAS MON NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 16N82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. AN ELONGATED E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-69W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER E CUBA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MON AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DEEP MOISTURE SUN NIGHT AND MON BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE ISLAND EARLY TUE THROUGH THU INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER OR MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-80W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 66W-72W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N- 30N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE SW ATLC S OF 21N THROUGH THU. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT TO JUST N OF THE AREA WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW