000 AXNT20 KNHC 180600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 18/0300 UTC. T.D. ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 37.7W AT 18/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 830 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE S OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 36W-38W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 12N17W TO 5N18W DRIFTING W. THIS WAVE IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WAVES. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA BISSAU IN W AFRICA. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N59W TO 9N59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 58W- 59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N74W TO 11N75W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ACTIVITY W OF THE WAVE IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W 12N37W THROUGH WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N49W TO 11N52W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 16W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 42W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AND SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE GULF NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 27N93W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS E OF 93W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N91W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC HAS EXPANDED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 86W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT W OF 75W AND CENTERED NEAR 16N81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. AN ELONGATED E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS THAT DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS GENERATING THESE SHOWERS IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL CONTINUE W LESSENING SHOWERS ON SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE MON THROUGH WED INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER OR MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 31N77W AND EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N W OF 78W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 79W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N49W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 50W-59W. THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW ATLC TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE CONTINUE W AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW