000 AXNT20 KNHC 180021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN AT 17/2100 UTC IS NEAR 21.0N 37.0W...ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ERIN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 35W-38W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N17W TO 4N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N17W. A 1022 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE LOW CENTER WITH 25 KT WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 13W-25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 22N72W TO 15N73W TO 11N72W MOVING W AT 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...JAMAICA... AND N COLOMBIA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 7N17W TO 6N27W TO 10N34W TO 12N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N44W TO 12N52W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W 21N93W 18N94W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 21N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W. FURTHER N...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N87W TO SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 87W-93W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA N OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF AND E TEXAS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W/73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA ...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 69W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 72W- 76W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N76W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE TO EXIT THE ISLAND...THEN MORE CONVECTION WILL ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS WITH SHOWERS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA