000 AXNT20 KNHC 161203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 30.5W AT 16/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 375 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 29W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 14N90W THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 21N91W OVER S MEXICO TO 15N91W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 24N91W AND IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N48W TO 11N 48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 22N61W TO 12N61W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 56W-67W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 15N21W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. ERIN NEAR 13N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N38W 12N46W TO 10N51W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 33W- 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N88W ALONG 28N91W TO 26N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER TAMPICO MEXICO COVERING THE W GULF S OF 29N W OF 91W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. TROPICAL WAVE/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY MON AND INLAND OVER FAR NE TEXAS OR SW LOUISIANA LATE MON INTO TUE. THE LOW WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO HAITI. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MON INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND LATE MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 32N W OF 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N- 30N W OF 75W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N68W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N57W AND EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA LIFTING N SAT AND SUN AS THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SW ATLC THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW