000 AXNT20 KNHC 160556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 295 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 28W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N89W TO NEAR 15N89W. SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 14N-26N TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 81W-88W AS WELL AS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N47W TO 12N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO 12N60W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 57W- 62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA RESUMING W OF T.S. ERIN NEAR 12N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N35W 13N44W TO 11N48W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 8N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 28N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING THEN INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE SUN AND INLAND LATE TUE OVER SW LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND W COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W-80W. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 65W DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN OVER THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE NEXT WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND SAT AND SUN INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 30N W OF 76W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N64W TO 24N67W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N56W AND EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW