000 AXNT20 KNHC 112345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N25W TO 13N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE BASE OF THE WAVE HAS AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 13N27W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-22N BETWEEN 15W-26W. CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N- 22N BETWEEN 13W-30W TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 12N49W TO 7N47W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SAHARAN DUST AREA. THIS DRY AIR AND DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION AND THUS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 13N27W TO 10N30W TO 7N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 17W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 87W HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. THIS IS THE MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE GULF. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 87W-98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 98W-101W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 1019 MB HIGH TO BE OVER THE NE GULF IN 24 HOURS...AND THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION. FURTHER MORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 18N62W TO 12N61W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W MOVING W AND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W... AND FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W MOVING W AND PRODUCING FAIR WEATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N48W TO 23N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 10N E OF 55W. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH MORE SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA