000 AXNT20 KNHC 102355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N18W TO 13N20W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 13W- 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 14W- 18W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N41W TO 9N40W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION AND IS RESULTING IN ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 11N24W TO 9N35W TO 7N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N41W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 8N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE WEST AFRICA COAST ALONG 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W...AND FROM 7N- 12N BETWEEN 57W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N92W. THIS IS THE MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE GULF. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 88W-93W...AND WITHIN 180 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W. MORE IMPORTANTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N63W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 62W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE QUICKLY W AND BE OVER E CUBA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATER. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 10N E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA