000 AXNT20 KNHC 092320 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N36W TO 10N34W MOVING W 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS TRAILING THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDING THE WAVE AS SEEN ON GOES R IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 24N83W ACROSS W CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AT 18N16W TO 13N20W TO 9N30W TO 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W- 38W...FRPM 6N-8N BETWEEN 47W-53W...AND FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 54W- 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER LOUISIANA...THE W GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S MEXICO E OF 95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONCETION IS OVER THE E GULF...FLORIDA ...AND W CUBA E OF 86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W TO THE W GULF WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA ...AND COASTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 63W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TO HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING AIRMASS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N PRODUCING MOSTLY 15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR N OF 10N E OF 55W. IN THE TROPICS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA