000 AXNT20 KNHC 091740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N35W TO 12N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN MID/UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. THE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS OVERTAKING THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDES THE WAVE WITHIN 400 NM AS SEEN ON GOES R IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 24N81W ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 14N81W MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS PRODUCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 11N25W TO 7N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-12N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA...FROM 6N9N BETWEEN 20W-28W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N92W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N TO OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 84W INCLUDING W CUBA AND S FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 80W INCLUDING W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W ANCHORED OVER THE GULF VENEZUELA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 70W-79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. AN UPPER LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N56W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N62W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 10N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W-70W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERS HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THE ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N W OF 65W. THE UPPER LOW IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 29N W OF 70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 76W TO OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N63W SUPPORTING A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W- 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E TO W ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS SUN AND MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW