000 AXNT20 KNHC 070004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...APPROACHING BARBADOS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 8N TO 16N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 10N25W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N33W TO 7N39W 11N46W 14N49W AND 15N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN SENEGAL FROM 14N TO 16N...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 9N26W 7N34W 6N43W 11N57W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...ACROSS FLORIDA... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N73W TO 30N80W...TO A FLORIDA 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W AND 28N90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N76W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W... TO 25N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 29N92W 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN FLORIDA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF 31N83W 26N80W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW CROSSES INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AS IT MOVES AROUND A NORTHEASTERN TEXAS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGHS THAT COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BLOWING DUST HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT STATIONS IN NORTHERN MEXICO...ADJACENT TO THE BORDER OF TEXAS...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. MCALLEN TEXAS IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS IN FALFURRIAS AND ALICE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA INTO THE NEARBY FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT LEAST FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN PERRY FLORIDA...AND IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. THE FORT MYERS AREA STILL HAS SOME LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 22N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W EVENTUALLY TO 14N75W AND 15N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA AND COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...DEVELOPING AND DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA...AND IN HISPANIOLA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AND IN COASTAL PANAMA NEAR 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 22N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W EVENTUALLY TO 14N75W AND 15N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CUBA AND COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...DEVELOPING AND DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA...AND IN HISPANIOLA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE COVERED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD...GIVING WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE COVERED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N49W AND 27N48W. THIS TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 26N TO 36N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W 25N63W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N37W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT