000 AXNT20 KNHC 060603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N57W TO 10N55W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOW SOME DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N24W 10N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS STARTS NEAR 10N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N38W TO 12N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N E OF 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 29W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N89W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W 28N85W 28N89W...GENERATING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N-28N. ANOTHER PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W TO 18N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TROUGHINESS OVER THE SE AND SW GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...VERY DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE WINDS OF 5-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL AS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR PERSISTS WITHIN ITS EXPECTED PATH. HISPANIOLA... IN THE UPPER LEVEL...THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING LOW VALUES OF WIND SHEAR OVER THE ISLAND...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF THE HISPANIOLA WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 30N77W 30N72W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N71W TO 25N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N W OF 68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N58W TO 20N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS N OF 23N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN SPOTTED JUST W OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N45W TO 11N45W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 44W-47W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY LOWER-MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR