000 AXNT20 KNHC 050557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0522 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N44W TO 15N41W MOVING W-NW NEAR 5 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 10N24W 10N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS STARTS NEAR 10N30W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N40W TO 07N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 16W- 31W...FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W AS WELL AS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 49W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED TO A COLD FRONT UP NORTH ARE N OF 28N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS IN THE NE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UP NORTH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...VERY DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN OUTBREAK SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM 20-25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BASIN AND 5-15 KT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN U.S.A. AND A LOW CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY. HISPANIOLA... EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN HAITI...CURRENTLY VERY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MODERATE MOIST AIR AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE HISPANIOLA N OF 17N. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N71W TO 26N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 29N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA ARE N OF 28N W OF 77W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 27N50W TO 21N51W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY LOWER-MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR