000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE STANDS OUT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N58W 21N52W 19N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N31W TO 9N36W 10N44W AND 7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 10N27W 11N33W 8N39W 8N47W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N47W 6N53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND IT SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN EAST TEXAS. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND...ALONG 32N/33N FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. SCATTERED STRONG IS INLAND FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND IN LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 27N80W TO 26N81W INLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N88W...TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED AT BAY CITY TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...AND AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN GENERAL AIRPORT. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED FROM THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON IN FLORIDA. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE IN PANAMA CITY. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN FORT MYERS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED FROM ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER TO TAMPA...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KEMK AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 42W/43W TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 17N80W 14N72W 14N70W...AND TO THE EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 80W IN PANAMA...TO 14N86W ALONG THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...TO 18N91W IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATER FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN NICARAGUA...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W IN HONDURAS... AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W IN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 10 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH A 21N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W... EVENTUALLY TO 14N72W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS NOW ARE IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. THE PRECIPITATION STARTED EARLIER IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W...AND IT HAS SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE 42W/43W TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 48 HOURS. THE CENTER WILL START NEAR 23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HISPANIOLA WILL END UP IN THE MIDDLE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 700 MB FORECAST. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL DISSIPATE EARLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA ABOUT 12 HOURS EARLIER. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE COVERED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 30N74W AND 28N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 28N73W 26N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N76W 24N81W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N55W...TO A 21N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W...EVENTUALLY TO 14N72W. LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N64W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N34W TO 32N43W...BEYOND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT